In a recent episode of Across the Pond College Football, I was fortunate to be joined by Ian Cummings, NFL draft analyst for Pro Football Network. The process and science he applies to draft analysis is eye opening. In five years with Pro Football Network, he has published, at time of writing, 1,852 articles. His commitment, dedication to and focus on his craft are unquestioned and he's a very decent bloke on top of this, generous enough to share an hour of his time with me. In the first of two articles, Ian offers insight into his approach on piecing together a near forensic analysis of a college football prospect and his unique evaluation process, and how he started writing for a living. In the next article, we talk about players to look for ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft, and his take on the headlines from the 2024 NFL Draft.
Getting started
Writing, "is something I picked up pretty quick and I was always good at it", comments Ian when I ask him how he was drawn to his chosen career. As a freshman in college, without "a good job at that point", he applied to FanSided, first as a writer and then he became a co-editor after a couple of months. Growing up in East Lansing, Michigan, he was a firm Michigan State fan when Kirk Cousins was under center for the Spartans.
He admits to pulling himself away from the fan realm as he needs to keep an objective distance. He keeps an eye on the NFL's Detroit Lions, recalling the disastrous 0-16 season as a ten-year old in 2008. "I remember that, you know, sitting on the living room floor watching, you know, Rod Marinelli just glowering on the sideline. We've come a long way since then." He is happy to see the team of the Motor City progressing under Dan Campbell.
Riggo's Rag, a FanSided site dedicated to covering the Washington Commanders gave him the opportunity to continue following Cousins, who he considered "a top five quarterback" at the time, admitting "I was very biased looking back, but that was how I got my start.".
He grew a fondness for Washington when he was writing for them because "they've gone through a lot with Dan Snyder and everything. And I'm glad things are looking up for them."
"Hey, you should write more about scouting..."
Two years on, Pro Football Network was a startup company with big ambitions and hiring hard. He initially joined as an editor and wrote "a few emergency pieces on the fantasy side". He then did an emergency piece about the talented Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young and was told: "Hey, you should write more about scouting, 'cause you're pretty good at it."
Having decided to heed this advice, five years on he is the full-time NFL draft analyst writing reports on upwards of two hundred players in the last cycle, and anticipates more this year, with a fast start already towards the 2025 NFL Draft. It has, he says, "been a lot of fun" and a learning experience, most of it self-taught. He talks about the power of combining the writing with its imagery and descriptions, and the scouting element - "what you see on film and your evaluating process", but didn't envisage a full-time writing career, graduating with a marketing degree. "I got that in my back pocket", he adds. I don't think he'll need to reach for it.
Analysing talent
A prodigious writer, turning out rich content on a daily basis, Ian's role involves analysing players across multiple positions, with intense focus on how they excel in their roles. He uses a structured framework to evaluate draft prospects, with ten trait categories he will grade them on, using a grading scale where he weighs up certain traits based on how intrinsic they are to their specific position. "Whether you're born with it, or whether you can develop it," he adds.
"You have to start at the bare fundaments, the foundational level. You never want to try and jump ahead. Just start at the bare foundation. How does he win?"
We talked about Luther Burden III, the highly rated wide receiver at the University of Missouri, how would Ian go about evaluating him, for example?
For wide receivers, he says, "I use a three-level framework threat loosely. Before the catch, at the catch, after the catch." His traits for a receiver include explosiveness, catching instincts, agility, twitch and route running. Run blocking would be near the bottom as it's useful but a secondary trait for success at the receiver position. Once he has the weights established for each metric, he then provides scores and this will give the player assessed a grade. At the base level, though, the questions he asks is how does this player win and how do their skills translate to the NFL level?
What else does he need to know?
With Luther Burden, he weighs up the above and thinks: "What else do I need to know?" Burden, he notes, is a great yards after catch threat. "I know he's explosive, I know he's got great speed. How does he separate on in-breakers, on comebacks, hitches? Does he have that in his arsenal yet?" You keep asking the questions, Ian says, until you have enough answers to build a composite picture of a player. With this, you can produce the scouting report, the conclusion of a "meticulous process, covering all the bases... you always want to have every answer available."
The process
Asking him if he drew any inspiration or learns from some of the prominent draft analysts - Mel Kiper, Jr., Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah, for example, he said he is mostly self-taught. His focus was on keeping his eyes and ears open for resources to learn. X (Twitter) and other sites where he could learn schematics. He admits he has "a long way to go" as "football is such a complex sport",
He learned, early on, not to focus on results, citing his championing of UCLA quarterback prospect Josh Rosen as an example of where he was less experienced at scouting and more opinionated. "Rosen was one of my guys . I had this idea that I like him and I'm gonna plant my flag.". Rosen was drafted No.10 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, having set the Bruins' single season record for passing yards, but has struggled in his NFL career. Having bounced around seven teams, Rosen was released from the Minnesota Vikings' practice squad in January 2023 and has been a free agent since.
Ian's approach changed, realising "if you're results oriented, you're just going to pick guys to plant your flag and you're not going to go through a finely tuned process." He looked at how he could improve his process to gain consistent, efficient results at every position. Asking questions, being introspective, self-accountable and particularly having a learning mindset:
"There's always more to learn both on the evaluative standpoint, how to contextualise things, and then on the football standpoint because it's just a very complex sport that's pretty much evolving every year."
Time to profile
It typically takes a few hours to prepare a player profile and varies based on the time of year, with early summer focusing on identifying potential and being less conclusive, a period where Ian says "I am a little more lenient with myself." This involves watching one to two games to form an initial impression of the player, while during the season, he will watch games in real time to monitor the progress of his chosen subject. The process is guided by his questions and cross-checking his predetermined categories to build a comprehensive report. His aim, currently, is to evaluate three players per day.
"One to two games is when you start to get a really strong impression of a player" and "you don't let a certain number of games or hours dictate what you need".
Dealing with criticism and maintaining positivity
Experience has given Ian a thicker skin and confidence in his convictions, fuelled he says by the work he puts in and the process he goes through: "No one knows how these guys are going to pan out, so the best I can do is give my informed opinion on what I see on tape." In the face of differing opinions, he is clear about remaining positive and focusing on constructive interaction to minimise negative feedback. He says, "it's good to have conviction and be confident in your abilities to evaluate. But I also know there's a lot that I don't know."
What does he love about college football?
We talk about the unique pageantry of college football that isn't matched in the NFL. He highlights the intimacy and pride associated with players' connections to their schools, combined with the passion of fans, which make college football such an engaging experience: "I think that adds a new level of engagement and emotional attachment that fuels the entire sport and the fan base behind it."
He mentions process again, the fundamental nature of his preparation and commitment to his chosen career that has given him such an impressive knowledge of players he analyses. His ability to recall certain detailed specifics of players and their relevant measurements and statistics from his carefully selected grading criteria is mesmerising. Process also appeals to his love of the game, the process of the college football season unfolding, "because every year someone else is reinvigorated. It's fun to see who emerges from the pack."
"It's excitement, it's pageantry...it's the gift that keeps on giving."
He mentions his colleagues at CFN, one of Pro Football Network's branch companies who focus on college football. Oliver Hodgkinson and Cam Mellor in particular, he says "it's fun to see it through their eyes, through that lens, because that's where the excitement really starts to shine.". Like me, Oliver is British and Ian and I talk about the rapid growth of interest in college football in the UK.
It's been a fascinating experience to gain some insight into the forensic approach of draft analysis, through the eyes of a rising star in this specialist profession. Ian's insight into players and how he scrutinises their unique skill sets is impressive. In the next article, we look at his take on the talent to watch ahead of the upcoming college football season and a look back at the 2024 NFL Draft. His view on dealing with the whole process is insightful:
"It's a very ambiguous process. We don't know what to expect at all. Once you take that into account, just the complete entropy of the entire draft process, you learn to just kind of lay back, say what you say, what you see. And that's about it."
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