In a follow up to my last article featuring my conversation with Ian Cummings, this piece focuses on our conversation around Ian's thoughts on players to watch in the upcoming 2024 college football season. and some surprises from the 2024 NFL Draft.
Looking back at the 2024 NFL Draft
Six quarterbacks being taken in the top 12 picks was unprecedented.
"I don't think it's ever happened before. Bo Nix went number 12, and then the next quarterback taken was Spencer Rattler in round five. I don't think we've ever seen a gap that big after six quarterbacks being off the board. So that was really surprising to me."
The selection of Michael Penix, Jr. at No.8 by Atlanta, he says, "was a major surprise to me." Ian had followed Kirk Cousins from his college career at Michigan State. Now 36, Cousins has just signed a $180 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons. Could they have helped their defense instead with a top-10 pick available?
"If I was the Falcons, I would have at least rode out a couple years. You could have gotten Rome Odunze or Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu with that pick. And I think that would have really, you know, could have taken the roster over the top." he adds.
Ricky Pearsall
Florida receiver Ricky Pearsall's first-round selection by San Francisco was another surprise: "I always thought it was on the radar because he tested very well. He's a great route runner, great hands as well. My concern was that he doesn't always play to that speed and explosion quite as much on tape. I think he can channel it a little bit more consistently. But again, you're looking at a separator with great hands. "
Offensive linemen
Quarterbacks aside, a key headline of the 2024 draft class was the selection of eight offensive linemen in the first round. This no longer seems to be a rarity and highlights the increased value placed on this critical position. While he notes that the 2025 draft class might not be as strong, he projects four to go in the first round.
"(Alabama's) J.C. Latham going to the Titans is a really fun one. I think with (new offensive line coach) Bill Callahan, very excited to see what he can do there because he's got the explosion, the power, all of those things."
Ian noted the Steelers' choices, Washington's Troy Fautanu and West Virginia's Zach Frazier, outlining their high IQ and exceptional athleticism, which will significantly bolster the team's O-line and give their new quarterback, whether it's Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, time to settle:
"Frazier was such a high IQ center prospect and former, I think two or three-time heavyweight champion wrestler in high school. So that leverage play is very impressive with him. And then Troy Fautanu, one of the best tackles that I've ever seen when it comes to recovery athleticism. He's 6'4", 320, it's crazy how easily he moves at that size. The Steelers completely reinvented their line."
TCU tackle Brandon Coleman going to the Commanders also stood out: "I think he's got an opportunity to be a starting left tackle for them."
"I think when you have a chance to get a blue chip offensive lineman, you have to take it." he notes. The Chargers getting Joe Alt was the case study for him because they had a big need at receiver too. Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze could have been worthy picks at No.5 but Ian felt the selection of Joe Alt, the man-mountain left tackle from Notre Dame, illustrated "how important that blocking front is."
"If you don't have an offensive line, what do you have? The quarterback is the most important player, but I think you can make a reasonable argument that the offensive line is the most important unit beyond that."
Which QBs should we be looking out for in the 2024 college football season?
The interesting thing looking at mock drafts at this time of year is it gives you a really good insight into some of the players to look out for next year in the college football season. Ian feels that this year's quarterback class " is pretty wide open aside from Carson Beck."
His recent mock draft projected four quarterbacks are projected in the first round, with Donovan Smith standing out despite rarely featuring in other first round mock drafts. Ian highlights Smith's potential, noting his solid output of 22 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.
Donovan Smith, Houston
He projects Smith, a Las Vegas native, being taken by the Raiders and is impressed with his physical attributes—6'5", 233 pounds—and athleticism, showcasing lateral mobility, flexibility, and off-platform throwing ability. Despite areas for improvement like decision-making and processing speed, Smith's situational IQ and spatial awareness, he feels, are promising traits:
"I was much more impressed with Donovan Smith's tape than I generally expected to be. Really good athlete. He's got the lateral mobility, the flexibility, and the off-platform throwing ability as well. Very elastic thrower with, I think, elite angle freedom. And to go along with really good arm strength, too. But what stood out to me is that there are flashes of legitimate anticipation, progression work, multitasking in the pocket, managing pocket space. while also progressing through reads one to two to three."
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
There are standout prospects who could elevate their stock this season. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is currently QB3 in Ian Cummings' rankings, but could rise up draft boards:
"He's very athletic. It caught me off guard. You know, his speed and explosiveness when he has a lane, like, he can run for sure. He's got wheels. And then he's got very good arm talent as well, you know, near elite arm talent, honestly. Very good drive velocity, very easy, effortless arm elasticity. I think he has a baseball background. He was a record breaker in high school at Utah. So you definitely see all of that natural talent that allowed him to get to that point.
I see more of the independent processing with Dart. I'm much more optimistic on that front because there are plays where he's reading high to low, anticipating over the middle of the field and throwing guys open with that layering ability. Very, very good traits to have as an NFL QB prospect."
Drew Allar, Penn State and Connor Weigman, Texas A&M
Ian is impressed by the young quarterbacks at Penn State and Texas A&M.
Drew Allar
The Penn State signal caller stands out for his size, 6'5" and 243lbs, arm strength, "he's got a rocket arm", and evolving decision-making skills, but Ian feels he needs to work on improving his accuracy. He feels the addition of Andy Kotelnicki as offensive coordinator from Kansas, where he developed Jalon Daniels, to the Penn State coaching ranks will help.
"For me, the biggest thing with him is honing in on the accuracy. I think there are a lot of times where when you have a big arm like that, you don't always know how to reel it in. Sometimes you can't just throw a laser. You got to be able to throw a touch and kind of take the pressure off the pedal. And use loft to fit it into tight windows. I think he's still improving at doing that."
"I think the processing and anticipation is actually pretty promising for a guy who's only going to be a 21 year old rookie if he does declare for the draft for the season."
Connor Weigman
Although lacking in starting experience in College Station (Ian notes he has started just eight games), Weigman displays potential with his agility, strong throwing ability, and developing field awareness. indicating a promising future with increased playing time.
"He's got some more mobile Jared Goff vibes to him, for me personally. He's got the arm talent for sure. He flashes really nice situational precision and loft. His ability to throw with loft and touch is certifiable. It's definitely there. But then he's got the arm talent and the drive velocity to hit some lasers too. And then he's athletic. He's mobile. He can throw off platform. The biggest thing for him, I just think having so little experience, you can tell his field vision, his processing isn't quite there yet. I just think he needs more seasoning. But once he gets there, once it starts to click for him, I think we could see him really make a meteoric rise."
"I believe both of these players have the potential to become first-round quarterbacks given more opportunities."
Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, Texas
Quinn Ewers:
Ewers, the top overall high school recruit in the national 2022 recruiting class, is a fascinating prospect. The Texas native originally committed to Ohio State, where he sat behind C.J. Stroud, before returning to his home start under the tutelage of Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian, leading Texas to the College Football Playoff last season.
Ian points out his considerable arm talent and elasticity: "I give him a 9.5 in arm elasticity, which is really high. That's one of the highest grades that I can give because the angle freedom is truly special. He's a guy who can throw off platform, any platform you want, he can throw it." However, he feels Ewers faces challenges with mechanics and mental discipline, showing inconsistency in his game, but adds there is potential for improvement with a focus on mechanical discipline and on-schedule play. Ian currently assesses Ewers with a day three grade, but pinpoints areas of improvement to aid his transition to the NFL ahead of the draft:
"I think if he can improve the mechanics, if he can become, more disciplined, not regimented because then you're working into the robotic range. You do need to be able to play off script. You need to be able to adapt, but you also need to be able to play on time, on schedule, efficient, quick, no waste or fat in your movements."
So I'm still holding out hope that he can do it. I know Texas has Isaiah Bond coming from Alabama, so they're going to have weapons again. It's going to be a fun offense to watch. Quinn Ewers does have a little ways to go before he lives up to his recruitment billing for me."
Arch Manning:
"This is a guy who's at the forefront of the media landscape, a lot of eyes on him, right?" The conversation is brief due to his limited playing time to date. Manning, a highly touted five-star recruit with a storied family legacy, has generated substantial hype despite limited on-field experience to be able to give a full assessment of his capability.
" I know he looked good in the spring game, I know he's got the talent for sure, he's got the legacy. I'm kind of waiting in suspense there. I know he's got the talent, I know he's the name to keep an eye on but we still got some time to go for him."
Receivers
Luther Burden III, Missouri and Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
Ian's mock draft saw Luther Burden III and Tetairoa McMillan taken as the top two receivers off the board. What should we look out for from these two players this season?
Luther Burden III
"Looking at, you know, the Carolina Panthers and the Titans, they needed a receiver. Both of them have new offensive coordinators. Luther Burden going to Carolina. Burden is the five-star prospect. He's that guy who's just been that guy since high school. Looking at his play at Missouri in his first two years, the guy is versatile, super explosive. 5'11", 208, he's got pretty good arm length too. So really appealing frame to work with. Very good catching instincts. Very natural receiver when the ball's in the air. The contact balance, the agility, the lightning quick feet, he's such a fun player with that."
Tetairoa McMillan
T-Mac is a very talented player. He moves incredibly well for that size (6'5"). The flexibility that he has as a route runner, we were just talking about Marvin Harrison Jr. but T-Mac is, is not too far behind in terms of route flexibility. I think as a route runner, not nearly as nuanced or precise as Marvin Harrison Jr. yet, but I do think the upside is there. He's got that box out ability with his frame coordination, body control, all of those things are there. Very good hands as well.
I was looking at the Titans contract situations. I always look ahead for, for contracts as I'm doing mock drafts. What might they need in the future? Deandre Hopkins, I think might be a free agent coming up pretty soon here. Then Calvin Ridley, they signed him long, but Treylon Burks, we're not sold on him long-term yet. Getting another authoritative presence on the boundary could really help a guy like Will Levis, who was willing to take those chances. And T-Mac, I think, fits that to a "t"."
Travis Hunter, Colorado - better at receiver or corner?
We move on to the outstanding Travis Hunter, a standout athlete excelling in both offense and defense as a cornerback and wide receiver at Colorado, previously with Jackson State. Ian is divided on his optimal role, favouring cornerback for his turnovers and defensive skills, and seeing his huge potential as a receiver for his separation, route running, and agility. Which is his better position?
"Honestly, this is uncharted territory. I can't remember a prospect who played on both sides of the ball over half the snaps, right? You know, he had over a thousand snaps total last year. So, you know, ... he's played enough in both positions where you can legitimately grade him at both positions."
Having graded him very closely at both spots, Ian projects Hunter "as an early to mid first round prospect." He breaks down his ability in both roles:
"As a receiver I think the separation framework is really appealing with him. I think the throttle control, the hip sync, the change of direction, the explosion, the speed, all of those things. He can gash defensive backs."
"My initial impression, I would maybe lean toward corner because having a turnover threat like that at corner is very unique. You don't get that very often. A guy who legitimately can be a turnover threat on any down because he's got the zone awareness. He can play two on one. He can man up guys. He's got the ball skills."
"After my evaluation, I'm actually kind of leaning receiver now because the separation framework is just so appealing to me. I might have given him a 9 in route running already. I'm looking at the sync, the hip flexibility, how freely he moves in any direction. It would be a nightmare going up against this guy as a corner right and then at the same time if you do manage to get positioning, he's got the body control, he's got the instincts, he can go up and get the ball, he's authoritative. He's so agile, so explosive. He can make guys miss. And if you get him out in space, he can do something with it."
"Whatever you want to play him, that's your decision. I think you play either one, receiver or corner. I think he can be a high-level player in both spots. I would slightly lean receiver because I think Travis Hunter – you know 6'1" 185 lbs, a little lighter, I think his preferred brand of physicality from what I saw on tape more of the the precise deconstructing physicality that you see from a receiver. I think he could play either spot. I think he's going to be a very fun prospect down the line to see what people think about him because there's going to be millions of different opinions out there."
"My opinion is play him at receiver, play him at corner. He's a game changer either way. And I don't think there's a wrong answer."
I want to take the opportunity to say a big thank you to Ian, for his generosity to provide valuable time and insight. Please go to Pro Football Network to read more of Ian's work.
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